Weekend surveys: Likud weakening halted, Livni drops

11 days before the elections, the parties enter the final stretch - and surveys published today in Yediot Aharonot, Ma'ariv and Israel Today, leave the supporters of small parties confused.

An especially large survey of the Institute 'Dahaf', directed by Dr. Mina Tzemach, published on Friday morning in Yediot Achronot, indicates that the map stabilizes.

The Likud Beiteinu party, who lost four seats last month, stays the biggest with a gap which remains significant - and steady. According to the survey, conducted after broadcasts of election propaganda was started, Likud - Beiteinu of Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman wins 33 seats - just like in the previous survey two weeks ago.

The Labor party of Yachimovich returns one of the seats it lost last month and goes up to 18.

Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid's party, receives in the current survey of the Institute 'Dahaf' 11 seats too, while the third side of the triangle of the Left - the movement of Tzipi Livni - drops to 8 seats, a drop of three relative to the survey of two weeks ago.

According to the survey, Kadima of Shaul Mofaz - the largest party in the current Knesset, and thus gains many hours of election campaigning - passes the threshold and get two seats. The Arabs - 11.

Compared with Yediot's survey, a survey published today in the newspaper Ma'ariv and Makor Rishon, the Likud- Beiteinu gets 38 seats, and is actually on the rise again. The survey was conducted by the Ma'agar Mohot Institute, managed by Prof. Yitzhak Katz.

According to this survey, Yesh Atid gets 8, Livni's movement falls to 7 seats, and the survey significant leap belongs to Zahava Galon of Meretz, who receives six seats, two more than the last poll of the Ma'agar Mohot Institute. Thereby it is expected to double its power compared to the 18th Knesset. 'Kadima' also gets three seats. The Arabs - 10 only.

Overall, the center-left block parties gain 45 seats and reduce the advantage of the Right – according to the Yediot Ahronot poll – to four seats only. Together with the Arab parties that maintain consistency (four seats to the United Arab Hadash and Raam - Taal, and 3 to NDA) – the blocking bloc against Netanyahu grew to 56 seats.

Right-wing bloc shrinks or grows?
Shas Trio. Photograph: Yaakov Cohen

In the right, the surveys are also a little confusing. According to the survey of the Dahaf Institute in Yediot Aharonot, the steady rise of the Jewish Home continues, and Naftali Bennett leads to 14 seats. 'Powerful Israel' is expected to enter the Knesset and get two seats. Shas and United Torah Judaism lose a mandate each - in relation to the previous survey, and come to 10 and five respectively. Am Shalem of Haim Amsalem is not expected to pass the threshold.

According to the Ma'agar Mohot Institute published in Maariv and Makor Rishon, the Right, with the Orthodox in it, gets 71 seats - compared to 49 seats for the left bloc (including the Arab parties).

According to the Ma'ariv poll, the Jewish Home goes down to 13, Shas gets 12 seats - far more than the Yediot poll gave it - and United Torah Judaism with 6 seats.

According to Ma'ariv's survey, about a quarter of voters are still undecided. The survey also examined if the undecided can make far reaching changes.

Well, most of the undecided voters move within the left parties, but only 60 percent of them intend to vote, so that an inter-bloc drama is not expected. Instead, the survey examined the potential vote for the undecided who will vote, and it turns out that many of them are aimed at Yair Lapid's party. If these guys come to the polls, Lapid will be at his best. Perhaps Yachimovich too, who stands in second place for the undecided.

There is also a high percentage who do not intend to get to the polls. They are indifferent who claim they have no one to vote for or that there is no value for their vote, or that the elections do not interest them.

'בחדרי' גם ברשתות החברתיות - הצטרפו!